This is one message I wish I could hammer into normal urban libs: the typical criminal does not commit a single crime or a handful of crimes. A tiny minority commit nearly all crimes, and when you incarcerate them the crime goes away. It isn't the case that mysterious systemic forces cause the crime to re-equalize after you lock up one career criminal, there isn't another one waiting in the wings to take his place.
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Isn’t this wrong for exactly the reason you state for it being true? Like, crime is power law distributed. But that means most criminals are in the 80% who commit one or two crimes rather than the 20% committing nearly all the crime.
The issue is we are declining to lock up that 20%. The policy in many major cities is to not lock anyone up even after committing a dozen non-felonies, and to increasingly raise the bar for what qualifies as a felony. In SF you can clean the shelves of a Walgreens thirty times and never see prison.
Well, to me, the issue is that the statement was simply wrong.
I also don’t think there’s anything like a reason worthy of going all Straussian on it. The truth is that we don’t have that many police in cities relative to the amount of crime and basically no prosecutors relative to it.
It’s not surprising that we decline to do something about bike thieves and shoplifters when the raw manpower necessary doesn’t exist.
And, like, you should have been more pointed on SL (I forget what that stands for) whining about Gladwell. Broken windows theory is wrong because it’s not the evidence of crime which makes people do more crime, it’s that there’s no evidence of getting caught.
The big problem isn’t that some punk kid broke out the window of an abandoned factory, it’s that there weren’t any consequences *at all*. Not just that once, but literally every time. People see that and either indulge their worse angels or they subtly shift their views on morality.
“But basically the ubiquity of porn made women aware for the first time what male sexuality is actually like, and it repulsed them. They were happier not knowing, they wish they didn't have to be aware of the kind of imagery and production that gets men off.” No. First, the reverse is even more true. It taught teen boys that women like to be treated that way. Second it’s all lies. We’re acting like men (and boys!) organically like that stuff. But they don’t. It’s the result of 20 years of escalating “porn” consumption which most of these guys are hate-watching.
They don’t need to be conditioned that’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying they engineer the product to exploit biological predispositions, heedless of the consequences. I believe it’s a deliberate attempt to make men hate women and women fear men. And it’s working. It’s literally terrorism.
“””
This is one message I wish I could hammer into normal urban libs: the typical criminal does not commit a single crime or a handful of crimes. A tiny minority commit nearly all crimes, and when you incarcerate them the crime goes away. It isn't the case that mysterious systemic forces cause the crime to re-equalize after you lock up one career criminal, there isn't another one waiting in the wings to take his place.
“””
Isn’t this wrong for exactly the reason you state for it being true? Like, crime is power law distributed. But that means most criminals are in the 80% who commit one or two crimes rather than the 20% committing nearly all the crime.
Yeah, sorry, it’s become a pain point to me.
People are deeply invested in every part of crime except getting the facts about it right, which has made me overly prickly, I guess.
The issue is we are declining to lock up that 20%. The policy in many major cities is to not lock anyone up even after committing a dozen non-felonies, and to increasingly raise the bar for what qualifies as a felony. In SF you can clean the shelves of a Walgreens thirty times and never see prison.
Well, to me, the issue is that the statement was simply wrong.
I also don’t think there’s anything like a reason worthy of going all Straussian on it. The truth is that we don’t have that many police in cities relative to the amount of crime and basically no prosecutors relative to it.
It’s not surprising that we decline to do something about bike thieves and shoplifters when the raw manpower necessary doesn’t exist.
And, like, you should have been more pointed on SL (I forget what that stands for) whining about Gladwell. Broken windows theory is wrong because it’s not the evidence of crime which makes people do more crime, it’s that there’s no evidence of getting caught.
The big problem isn’t that some punk kid broke out the window of an abandoned factory, it’s that there weren’t any consequences *at all*. Not just that once, but literally every time. People see that and either indulge their worse angels or they subtly shift their views on morality.
Sure "the typical criminal" is wrong because it neglects the long tail of minor criminals. It should really be "the typical arrestee" or similar.
Mea culpa, live format and minimal editing.
“But basically the ubiquity of porn made women aware for the first time what male sexuality is actually like, and it repulsed them. They were happier not knowing, they wish they didn't have to be aware of the kind of imagery and production that gets men off.” No. First, the reverse is even more true. It taught teen boys that women like to be treated that way. Second it’s all lies. We’re acting like men (and boys!) organically like that stuff. But they don’t. It’s the result of 20 years of escalating “porn” consumption which most of these guys are hate-watching.
Maybe there is some truth here for the more gonzo stuff, of which obviously there is plenty.
But the idea that men / boys need to be conditioned to be turned on by hardcore porn is pretty silly.
They don’t need to be conditioned that’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying they engineer the product to exploit biological predispositions, heedless of the consequences. I believe it’s a deliberate attempt to make men hate women and women fear men. And it’s working. It’s literally terrorism.
Of course they don’t, that’s the point: their sexuality is being weaponized against them.